JONATHAN M. METSCH, Dr.P.H. – Tracking Emerging Public Health Challenges – October 29. 2026 – EBOLA
“The “unprecedented” spread of the Ebola outbreak means it could reach the UK and other countries, according to one of Africa’s top health officials.”
As the current outbreak reached 10,000 cases, with almost 5,000 deaths, Dr Jean Kaseya, director general of the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), compared the outbreak to the Covid pandemic, which first took hold in China before spreading to countries across the world, claiming millions of lives, and ravaging health systems and economies.
“We want all countries to know that they are not safe if they don’t take appropriate measures,” he said.
“Each country, not only in the African region, but all continents, must now increase the preparedness level and the possibility for treatment.
“It is the first time three African regions have been affected [by Ebola]. The geographic extension of this outbreak is unprecedented,” he said.
Kaseya said leaders around the world should realise that although the brunt of the health crisis is affecting Africa at the moment, the situation could change. “We shouldn’t forget that at the beginning of Covid, many countries said there was zero risk of being affected, but a few months later, they became the hotspot,” he said. “We don’t want to see the UK and other countries become the hotspot.” (1)
“Nearly half the infected people in this outbreak have died, and some experts say there are reasons to worry this could grow into the worst Ebola outbreak in history. Others don’t think it will reach that level. Researchers are currently working on updated projections.
Current circumstances suggest it’s unlikely to spark significant problems in most other countries, some researchers said. But about 30 confirmed cases have already popped up in other nations. And the risk that more will appear outside Congo will grow if the outbreak isn’t tamed, said Justin Lessler, a University of North Carolina researcher who studies the dynamics of infectious disease outbreaks.
Experts also are hopeful that a vaccine will become available next year that could help control it.
At a virtual summit of African health ministers on Wednesday, Africa CDC Director-General Dr. Jean Kaseya said the continent is “not winning” the fight against Ebola and needs to do more after it spread to multiple African countries. “Together, we agreed to prepare every country, coordinate across our borders and keep those borders open while watching them closely,” Kaseya wrote on X.
Steady case numbers raise concerns about spread beyond Congo
About 400 to 500 new confirmed cases have been reported in Congo each week, and that number seems to be holding steady. It’s good news that “cases are not rising exponentially,” at least for the moment, said Dr. Boghuma Titanji, an Emory University infectious disease specialist.
“But they’re not coming down, either,” she said. “It’s at a plateau. And the plateau is at a very, very high set point.”
A major challenge in Congo is limited contact tracing and collaboration with affected communities; health workers sometimes spend more time trying to convince locals to work with them than giving care.
Fewer than a quarter of new cases are coming from people known to have been in contact with an infected person, showing there are ongoing chains of transmission that health authorities are not aware of.
As cases mount, the likelihood grows that more infected people travel to other countries, Titanji and other experts said. France, Kenya, Nigeria and Uganda also have reported cases tied to the Congo outbreak.
Travel restrictions, like those imposed by the U.S., can make it harder for the virus to leave Africa. And in many places where a traveler’s infection may surface, health officials should be able to quickly isolate an infected person and find any contacts, experts say.
“The direct risk it poses to the U.S. at this point, I’d say, is very close to zero,” Lessler said.
But Ebola could flare in poor and conflict-stricken places with weakened health systems — like South Sudan, for example, Lessler said.” (2)
“Health officials from 45 African countries met Wednesday to coordinate a continent-wide response to an Ebola outbreak that has killed nearly 5,000 people in DR Congo and spread to Kenya and Nigeria, as an assessment presented at the meeting showed only three of 31 countries evaluated were adequately prepared to respond.
“Our member states, they agree and they commit to implement all actions that we discussed today, including strengthening the preparedness efforts,” said Jean Kaseya, head of Africa CDC, the continent’s public health agency. The recommendations include coordinating efforts across borders, keeping borders open and tracking response funding to ensure it reaches frontline teams.
Kaseya told Semafor in an interview last week that he feared content-wide spread was possible. Data presented to ministers showed no sustained decline in new cases for 11 weeks in DR Congo, where more than 10,000 infections have been confirmed, while aid organizations warned that funding was failing to keep pace with the scale of the outbreak.” (3)
“African health ministers agreed to keep their countries’ borders open despite the fast-expanding Ebola outbreak in the region, the head of the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) said Thursday.
The announcement came after a high-level virtual meeting convened by the Africa CDC to assess the Ebola situation and discuss ways to strengthen cross-border coordination.
More than 40 African ministers attended the emergency meeting, convened amid the rapid geographic spread of the Ebola outbreak caused by the Bundibugyo strain.
Four countries have been affected so far by the current outbreak, including Congo, Uganda, Kenya and Nigeria.
The meeting resolved to get every country ready and work hand-in-hand across borders to avert further spread of the virus, which has claimed nearly 5,000 lives since May, mainly in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
The number of confirmed cases has surpassed 10,170, with a case fatality rate of 48.5% according to Africa CDC.
“I stood before more than 40 African Ministers and said what the data tells us: we are not winning so far,” said Kaseya. “Together, we agreed to prepare every country, coordinate across our borders and keep those borders open while watching them closely. Our partners are standing behind Africa’s plan.”
Kaseya told the ministers that the outbreak has grown during the past five months from a national crisis into a continental health security test.
He said while the main priority is to stop Ebola on the continent, insecurity, complex humanitarian situations and limited funding remain the challenges.
Uganda’s Health Minister Chris Baryomunsi said his country’s experience shows that countries can interrupt transmission when they act early and decisively.
Uganda was declared free of Ebola in August by the World Health Organization.
The country reported 20 confirmed cases after the outbreak was declared in May.
The Africa CDC has warned that 10 other African nations are “at risk” of being affected by the virus, following an outbreak in Congo, including Rwanda, Kenya, Tanzania, Angola, Burundi, the Central African Republic, the Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, South Sudan and Zambia.” (4)
“The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) stressed that the risk to the UK is low. Dr Sam Collins, head of guidance, clinical and public health response at the agency, said the Ebola outbreak in DRC is serious but “the UK is well prepared to respond safely and effectively to the risk of imported cases arising here”.
UKHSA is monitoring travel routes from the affected countries and is providing information on symptoms.
The UKHSA said it is rare for Ebola to occur in returning travellers and the NHS has “well established procedures in place” for such a situation.”
“Jonathan Ball, professor of medical virology at the Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, said while it was important to be vigilant the likelihood of any widespread outbreak in the UK was low.
“If we do get cases here, do I expect it to spread like Covid? Not at all, because it doesn’t have the same transmission route as Covid. It doesn’t have the same incubation period. It’s far longer. It’s probably anything between seven to 14 days. You’re not infectious to others unless you’ve got symptoms. And so there’s a whole bunch of characteristics about the viral infection that makes it easier to control if you do get imported cases,” he said.
Prof Ball added: “What it does show is we can’t continue to ignore health problems in other parts of the world. It’s become politically popular to think we’re wasting money if we invest in overseas health infrastructure. But if we don’t do that, this is what happens, and it’s disruptive, and it will have consequences. Today, it’s Ebola, tomorrow it might be a different infection.”
Andrew Pollard, director of the Oxford Vaccine Group and professor of infection and immunity at Oxford University, said everyone should be concerned about the outbreak in DRC.
“Previous outbreaks have been controlled by diagnosing and isolating infected individuals, identifying and monitoring their at-risk contacts and protecting frontline workers. All of these measures are difficult to put in place in regions with poor health infrastructure, difficult to access populations and insecurity, and these factors have hampered control efforts in DRC.
“However, in high income settings such as the UK, medical plans are already in place and the public health infrastructure is well equipped to respond to any case (such as might occur in a returning aid or health worker) and to contain onward spread,” he said.” (5)
“But without tackling the disease at its devastating source, the risk of cross-border infection can never be eradicated. The WHO said the DRC accounted for 4,687 confirmed deaths and 9,704 cases as of 23 October. The real numbers could be much higher.
Without enormous financial and healthcare assistance, the authorities do not have the ability to contain Ebola.
Worryingly, the IRC reports that “distrust towards the Ebola response is growing” in DRC. “More outreach workers need to go door to door and work with trusted local leaders to explain the role of health officials in preventing Ebola’s spread. That work costs money, and funding is arriving neither fast enough nor at the necessary scale.”
It should not take the risk of outbreaks in Kenya and Nigeria for the world to wake up to the unfolding horror. The nightmare scenario for Lagos and Nairobi is already a reality in the Congo.”
But without tackling the disease at its devastating source, the risk of cross-border infection can never be eradicated. The WHO said the DRC accounted for 4,687 confirmed deaths and 9,704 cases as of 23 October. The real numbers could be much higher.” (6)
Trump admin bets on experimental Ebola vax, https://www.politico.com/newsletters/politico-pulse/2026/10/29/trump-admin-bets-on-experimental-ebola-vax-01139105
1.Africa’s ‘unprecedented’ Ebola outbreak could reach UK, says top health official, by Sarah Johnson, https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2026/oct/28/africa-ebola-outbreak-could-reach-uk-says-top-health-official
2.Experts warn of wider spread as Ebola outbreak reaches plateau, By MIKE STOBBE, https://apnews.com/article/ebola-congo-10000-cases-forecast-8bec4479473d61048250615db96eae55
3.African nations mobilize against widening Ebola crisis, by Ruben Nyanguila, https://www.semafor.com/article/10/29/2026/african-nations-mobilize-against-widening-ebola-crisis
4.????
5.Risk of Ebola spread in UK is low, experts stress, by Anne Gulland, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/risk-of-ebola-spread-in-uk-is-low-experts-stress/.
6.DRC needs urgent help as Ebola spreads, By David Thomas, https://african.business/2026/10/politics/drc-needs-urgent-help-as-ebola-spreads
curated by Jonathan M. Metsch, Dr.P.H.
Clinical Professor of Environmental Medicine, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai