JONATHAN M. METSCH – Tracking Emerging Public Health Challenges – April 4, 2026 – COVID
“So, what if, next time, New Zealand had the modelling tools it needed to weigh up all the potential impacts at once?
A new pandemic model?
The British statistician George Box famously said that “all models are wrong, but some are useful”.
In essence, models may never perfectly capture the complexities of the real world, but they remain valuable tools for decision-making and prediction.
Pandemic responses are largely informed by epidemiological models, which help us understand how disease spreads through populations, and which simulate the impact of different control measures. But they also have limitations, including the difficulty of capturing human behaviour.
During COVID-19 and earlier events, these models were typically developed separately from economic modelling, each serving distinct purposes. Increasingly, however, there is recognition that integrating these approaches can provide a more complete picture.
Reflecting this shift, the UK-based Institute for Government has examined the benefits and challenges of so-called “epi-econ” models, which combine epidemiological and economic analysis.
Rather than simply assessing cost-effectiveness, these more sophisticated models aim to capture both the public health and broader economic impacts of policies such as lockdowns, border closures, vaccination programmes and wage subsidies.
They can simulate how such measures may affect infections, hospitalisations and deaths, as well as their possible impacts on inflation, employment and economic growth.
They can also take both short and long-term perspectives, capturing the complex, dynamic interactions between public health crises, the interventions used to manage them and their broader macroeconomic consequences.” (1)
Why is the new COVID variant called Cicada?
How is Cicada different from previous COVID strains?
How widespread is Cicada?
Does the COVID vaccine protect against Cicada?
What are the symptoms of new COVID variant?
Do COVID tests still work on Cicada?
Does Cicada cause worse disease than previous variants? (2)
“What Is the COVID-19 Cicada Variant (BA.3.2)?
The Cicada variant (BA.3.2) is a newer Omicron-related subvariant identified through global and U.S. monitoring systems. Like other recent strains, it has evolved with mutations that may influence how easily it spreads and how the immune system responds.
The CDC is currently evaluating BA.3.2 for:
Transmissibility: How quickly it spreads
Immune evasion: Ability to partially bypass prior immunity
Clinical impact: Severity of illness and outcomes
At this stage, BA.3.2 is being monitored and has not been classified as a high-concern variant, meaning there is no evidence it causes more severe disease than recent strains.”
“Is the Cicada Variant More Contagious?
Early data suggests the BA.3.2 “Cicada” variant may spread easily from person to person similar to other recent Omicron subvariants.
Health experts note:
It may have a slight transmission advantage in certain settings
It can infect individuals with prior immunity (from vaccines or past infection)
Protection against severe illness remains strong, especially for those up to date on vaccines
Overall, while the Cicada variant may contribute to seasonal increases in cases, it does not currently appear to dramatically change the risk landscape.” (3)
1.In the next pandemic, NZ doesn’t need to choose between health and the economy, by Paula Lorgelly , https://theconversation.com/in-the-next-pandemic-nz-doesnt-need-to-choose-between-health-and-the-economy-277951
2.What to Know About Cicada, the New COVID Variant, by Alice Park, https://time.com/article/2026/03/31/new-covid-variant-cicada/
3.Understanding the COVID-19 Cicada Variant (BA.3.2): Symptoms, Spread and Protection, by Sharon Nachman, https://www.wral.com/news/local/covid-cicada-variant-south-africa-tracking-march-2026/
curated by Jonathan M. Metsch, Dr.P.H.
Clinical Professor of Environmental Medicine, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai