JONATHAN M. METSCH, DrPH – Tracking Emerging Public Health Challenges – March 25, 2026 – COVID
Of the thousands of seat-of-the-moment judgment calls made by the Cuomo administration during that harrowing time – for better and for worse – the March 25 order, more than any other, has come to symbolize the flaws in the state’s flawed pandemic response.
Six years later, it also symbolizes the state’s failure – and the nation’s failure – to properly reckon with what went so badly wrong.
“No resident shall be denied re-admission or admission to the [nursing home] solely based on a confirmed or suspected diagnosis of COVID-19,” said a Health Department directive issued on March 25, 2020 – with no advanced notice to the affected facilities.”
“More than 9,000 recovering Covid-19 patients flowed into nursing homes over the next six-and-a-half weeks, a period when thousands of residents were dying. State-ordered admissions clearly were not the only driver of the pandemic in nursing homes, but they likely aggravated what was already a grim situation.
Still, the March 25 order might never have blown into a major scandal had then-Governor Andrew Cuomo and his team discussed the decision honestly and openly. Instead, they mounted a months-long misinformation campaign that included wrongly describing how the policy had worked, falsifying an official Health Department report, and understating how many residents had died.”
“The takeover by Governor Kathy Hochul should have paved the way for a sweeping “after-action” review – looking not just at the handling of nursing homes, but every aspect of the state’s pandemic response. Why was the stockpile full of expired material? Could testing kits have been rolled out sooner? Should lockdowns have begun sooner or ended earlier?
If done properly, the investigation would not have pointed fingers, but gleaned lessons from hard experience – to assure that the state will be better prepared when the next virus emerges.” (1)
“The British statistician George Box famously said that “all models are wrong, but some are useful”.
In essence, models may never perfectly capture the complexities of the real world, but they remain valuable tools for decision-making and prediction.
Pandemic responses are largely informed by epidemiological models, which help us understand how disease spreads through populations, and which simulate the impact of different control measures. But they also have limitations, including the difficulty of capturing human behaviour.
During COVID-19 and earlier events, these models were typically developed separately from economic modelling, each serving distinct purposes. Increasingly, however, there is recognition that integrating these approaches can provide a more complete picture.
Reflecting this shift, the UK-based Institute for Government has examined the benefits and challenges of so-called “epi-econ” models, which combine epidemiological and economic analysis.” (2)
“A new Covid variant is spreading across the U.S. and it may be able to evade protection from current vaccines.
The variant, known as BA.3.2, has been detected in nasal swabs taken from four American travelers and clinical samples from five patients in four unidentified states. It’s also been found in three airplane wastewater samples and 132 wastewater samples taken in more than 20 states, suggesting that its reach is actually far more widespread than what scientists see right now.”
“That could warrant updating current vaccines, which only target JN.1’s subvariants and provide protection against predominant U.S. variants.” (3)
1.New York Still Hasn’t Learned from its Covid Mistakes, by Bill Hammond, https://www.empirecenter.org/publications/new-york-still-hasnt-learned-from-its-covid-mistakes/
2.In the next pandemic, NZ doesn’t need to choose between health and the economy, by Paula Lorgelly, https://theconversation.com/in-the-next-pandemic-nz-doesnt-need-to-choose-between-health-and-the-economy-277951
3.New Covid variant has been identified and is already spreading in 25 states, by Julia Musto, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/new-covid-variant-ba32-symptoms-vaccine-b2945108.html
curated by Jonathan M. Metsch, Dr.P.H.
Clinical Professor of Environmental Medicine, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai