TRACKING EMERGING VIRUSES – May 13, 2025 – MEASLES
“When Will the Measles Outbreak End?”
John Parkinson and Paul Offit
““The measles epidemic now will die down because it’s essentially a winter disease, and by mid-spring, it’s gone. That’s what happened in Philadelphia,” Offit said. We basically didn’t see any more measles beyond mid-May, so I think we’re getting there. My sense is that the incidence of measles is starting to decline. But, if we continue to choose not to vaccinate our children, it’ll be back again next winter.””
“In terms of herd immunity, he believes it may be gone in the US.
“I think we’re there,” Offit said. “I’ve talked to people on the ground who have told me that if you look at the death rate, you look at the doubling rate, and you look at the hospitalization rate, it’s probably at least 3000 cases, and maybe as many as 5000 cases in the US. So I think we’ve already exceeded where we were in 2019 where we had 1200 cases. I think that we are no doubt going to soon lose our status as a country that eliminated measles.”
to read the full article got to
https://www.contagionlive.com/view/when-will-the-measles-outbreak-end-
“Measles Could Become Endemic in US if Surge Continues, Expert Warns”
By Rebecca Schein
“How do measles cases this year compare with previous years?
“How did the US eliminate measles?
“Why are rising measles rates so worrisome?”
Measles is a virus, like the common cold. Unlike bacterial infections, which can be treated
“What happens if measles rates continue to rise?”
“What would it take to reverse the rise in measles?”
to read the full article go to
https://www.sciencealert.com/measles-could-become-endemic-in-us-if-surge-continues-expert-warns
“The rapid spread of measles”
By Clare Farley, Tiana McGee and Minami Funakoshi
“Measles is one of the world’s most contagious diseases — much more so than chickenpox or COVID-19 — but it is also preventable. The measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine, introduced in 1971, is highly effective: people who get the recommended two doses are 97% less likely to catch measles compared with unvaccinated people.”
“But the hurdle for herd immunity, in which enough people are inoculated to protect those unable to be vaccinated, is also high: 95% of the population needs to be vaccinated or immune to stop measles from spreading. With such a high threshold, even a small drop in vaccination rate can break herd immunity and lead to outbreaks.
The simulations below illustrate how one case of measles could spread in Lubbock, Texas, and its surrounding areas if 95%, 85%, or 75% of children aged 10 or younger were vaccinated against the disease. Lubbock neighbors Gaines county, the center of the current measles outbreak in Texas.”
to read the full article go to
https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-HEALTH/MEASLES/lbvgwxrwbvq/
“Measles Coming Back in a Big Way?”
By The Editorial Board
“The best time to worry about sliding childhood vaccination rates was yesterday, but today is better than tomorrow. Last week the Journal of the American Medical Association published a paper that models alternative futures for the U.S. over the next 25 years. Under current rates of immunization, the analysis suggests that it’s likely measles will eventually become endemic again, given how contagious it is.
About 92.7% of kindergartners in 2023-24, the most recent estimate, had received two doses of the MMR vaccine for measles, mumps and rubella. Compared with four years earlier, that’s down 2.5 percentage points. Over the long term, the authors write, the U.S. “may be approaching the threshold of losing sufficient population immunity to reliably prevent endemic transmission of measles.”
to read the full article go to
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/measles-outbreak-texas-vaccines-jama-study-615553bf
“Measles outbreak that began in Texas nears 800 cases across three states”
by Emily Brindley
“As of Friday, there have been 797 cases reported in the outbreak across the three states.
There have been seven measles cases reported in the Dallas-Fort Worth area so far this year, but none have been linked to the larger outbreak.
State officials list six of the seven North Texas cases as “other 2025” cases, meaning they are not associated with the West Texas outbreak. That includes the two cases reported in Tarrant County late last week.”
“As of Friday, the state data showed 16 measles cases reported in Texas this year that are not associated with the West Texas outbreak.”
to read the full article go to
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2025-05-measles-outbreak-began-texas-nears.html
“An Insider’s View of the Texas Measles Outbreak”
“Katherine Wells has been an epidemiologist working to protect the public from disease outbreaks for 25 years. Until January, she had never encountered measles.
“I mean, we considered measles eradicated in the United States,” she said.
Now, as public health director for Lubbock, Texas, Wells is at the center of a measles outbreak that has infected more than 700 people in Texas alone, sent more than 90 to the hospital and killed two otherwise healthy children.”
Below are highlights from our conversation with Wells, edited for length and clarity.”
“On the shock of facing a measles outbreak”
“On the ways federal upheaval has complicated the measles fight”
“On facing the ‘machine’ that’s churning out vaccine disinformation”
“On how to help people who are afraid of vaccines”
“On cultivating community for the future of public health”
to read th full article go to
https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/news/health-science/2025/05/12/521038/an-insiders-view-of-the-texas-measles-outbreak/
“Former CDC director warns of measles risk as vaccine rates drop”
by: Sally Hernandez
““This is a disease that was considered eliminated from the United States,” said former acting CDC director Dr. Rich Besser. “The only reason that we’re seeing this pop up in the way that we are is because vaccine rates have declined.””
“Measles is probably one of the most contagious viruses that we know. And so you have to have vaccine coverage rates of above 95% in the community for it not to spread,” explained Dr. Besser.
“When it drops below that, it starts to find people who aren’t vaccinated and it starts to spread. And unfortunately, we’ve seen people lose their lives from that, and I think we’re going to see more.”
Data from the outbreak shows that three people have died from measles this year.
Dr. Besser’s warning comes as local health leaders acknowledge federal spending cuts are making it harder to prepare or address infectious disease spread.”
““He argues vaccination rates would be higher if there were an “unequivocal messaging from the Secretary and others in government,” saying, “not only is it the best way to protect your child, but every parent should make sure that their child is fully vaccinated.””
““While it’s a personal decision to vaccinate your child, it’s one that affects the other people in your family, your neighbors, those in your community,” Besser said. “So talk to your doctor, get your questions answered so you can do the right thing in terms of protecting your children.””
to read the full article go to
https://www.kxan.com/news/simplehealth/former-cdc-director-warns-of-measles-risk-as-vaccine-rates-drop/
“Measles Found in Houston Wastewater Before Outbreak”
By Eric Boerwinkle and Sara Javornik Cregeen,
“An innovative outbreak detection program that tracks disease-causing viruses in wastewater identified the measles virus in Houston samples collected in early January 2025, before cases were reported.”…
“In the current study, the researchers reported that their wastewater surveillance program detected the measles virus in samples collected on Jan. 7 in two Houston water treatment facilities serving more than 218,000 residents. A parallel investigation confirmed on Jan. 17 the measles virus in two travelers residing in the same area serviced by the sampled water treatment plants.”
““Because no other cases have been reported and the detections occurred in the same area where the travelers resided, it is reasonable to assume that the measles signal detected in wastewater is from the two infected cases, which underscores the high sensitivity of the method,” Maresso said.”
To read the full article go to
https://www.technologynetworks.com/applied-sciences/news/measles-found-in-houston-wastewater-before-outbreak-399545
“Multi-state outbreak fears as measles hits popular tourist attraction with untold number infected”
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-14688385/measles-outbreak-popular-tourist-attraction-missouri.html
“Texas House pushes bill that threatens vaccine safeguards amid measles outbreak”
By Odessa American -May 12, 2025
“The Texas House of Representatives is considering advancing House Bill 1586 (HB 1586), a dangerous proposal that would lead to more unvaccinated children in schools — just as the state faces a deadly measles outbreak. As of last week, the bill has been placed on the General State Calendar and is headed for a vote by the full House.
The Immunization Partnership (TIP) strongly opposes HB 1586 because it poses a direct threat to the health of children, immunocompromised individuals, the elderly and communities across Texas. Both confirmed childhood deaths and the majority of hospitalizations in the current measles outbreak have occurred among unvaccinated children.”
to read the full article go to
https://www.oaoa.com/local-news/texas-house-pushes-bill-that-threatens-vaccine-safeguards-amid-measles-outbreak/
curated by
Jonathan M. Metsch, Dr.P.H.
Clinical Professor of Environmental Medicine, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai
https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonathan-metsch-526290199/
jonathanmetsch@gmail.com