TRACKING EMERGING VIRUSES – April 28, 2025 – MEASLES
“’We’re already on the precipice of disaster’: Deadly measles outbreaks could explode across the US in the next 25 years if vaccinations fall, model predicts”
By Jess Thomson
“Measles was eliminated in the U.S. decades ago, but millions of new measles cases could pop up across the country over the next 25 years if vaccination rates continue to fall, new modeling suggests.
In a study published Thursday (April 24) in JAMA, scientists forecasted the number of measles cases that might be seen in coming decades if state-level vaccination rates stay steady, decline or increase. If vaccination rates drop by 10%, they found, there could be 11.1 million cases of measles across the U.S. in the next 25 years.
If vaccination rates stay the same as they are today, 851,300 cases of measles could occur in the same timeframe. In that scenario, the disease could feasibly “reestablish endemicity” within about two decades, meaning it could start to spread consistently in the U.S. once more.
If vaccination rates dropped as low as 50% of current levels, 51.2 million cases of measles could occur in the coming 25 years.
Assuming the rates of all routine vaccinations fell across the board, that would come with upticks in cases of other diseases, like rubella and polio. All told, this could lead to 10.3 million hospitalizations and 159,200 deaths, the model predicted, along with thousands of cases of post-measles neurological complications, rubella-related birth defects and polio-triggered paralysis. (Like measles, both rubella and wild polio have been eliminated in the U.S.)”
“We’re already on the precipice of disaster,” study lead author Mathew Kiang, an assistant professor of epidemiology at Stanford University, said in a statement.”
to read the full article go to
https://www.livescience.com/health/viruses-infections-disease/were-already-on-the-precipice-of-disaster-deadly-measles-outbreaks-could-explode-across-the-us-in-the-next-25-years-if-vaccinations-fall-model-predicts
“US may have millions more measles cases over next 25 years if childhood vaccination rates continue to decline, study says”
B y Jen Christensen
“Because measles is so contagious, experts say the only way to prevent outbreaks is if at least 95% of a community has received two doses of the MMR vaccine. After this rate was maintained for a decade, though, coverage dipped during the Covid-19 pandemic and has yet to recover. The measles vaccination rate fell to 92.7% for kindergartners in the 2023-24 school year, according to data from the CDC.
At current vaccination rates, the model predicts that the disease would become endemic in the US within 25 years.
If the vaccination rate declines 10%, the US would see 11.1 million cases of measles over this period.
If current trends were reversed and there was a 5% increase in the number of people getting the MMR vaccine, however, there would be only 5,800 measles cases over 25 years.”
“The model showed that other vaccine-preventable diseases shouldn’t become endemic in the US at current levels of vaccination. If, however, routine childhood vaccination falls 50%, it predicts 51.2 million measles cases over a 25-year period, 9.9 million cases of rubella, 4.3 million cases of poliomyelitis and 197 cases of diphtheria. With such a steep decline in vaccinations, these diseases would cause 10.3 million hospitalizations and 159,000 deaths.”
to read the full article go to
https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/24/health/measles-endemic-model/index.html#:~:text=US%20may%20have,over%2025%20years.
“Measles May Make Comeback as US ‘on the Precipice of Disaster”
By Ian Randall
“In the year 2000, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared that the measles had been eliminated from the U.S.”
However, vaccination rates have recently been falling in the U.S.—a problem that worsened during the COVID-19 pandemic.
“We’ve seen a worrisome pattern of decreasing routine childhood vaccinations. There was a disruption to health care service during the pandemic, but declines preceded this period and have accelerated since then for many reasons,” noted Lo.
“People look around and say, ‘We don’t see these diseases. Why should we vaccinate against them?’ There’s a general fatigue with vaccines.
“And there’s distrust and misinformation about vaccine effectiveness and safety,” Lo said.
https://www.newsweek.com/health-usa-measles-vaccines-endemic-outbreak-polio-rubella-2063633
“Measles Misinformation Is on the Rise – and Americans Are Hearing It, Survey Finds”
By KFF Health News
https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2025-04-25/measles-misinformation-is-on-the-rise-and-americans-are-hearing-it-survey-finds
“’On the precipice of disaster’: Measles may be endemic in 25 years if vaccine uptake stays low, model predicts”
Mary Van Beusekom
“Amid World Immunization Week, a news release from the WHO, UNICEF, and Gavi sounds the alarm on how low levels of vaccination against vaccine-preventable illnesses threatens to undo years of progress.
“Immunization efforts are under growing threat as misinformation, population growth, humanitarian crises and funding cuts jeopardize progress and leave millions of children, adolescents, and adults at risk,” the release said. “Outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases such as measles, meningitis, and yellow fever are rising globally, and diseases like diphtheria, that have long been held at bay or virtually disappeared in many countries, are at risk of re-emerging.”
To prevent resurgences, the three agencies urge rapid and sustained political attention and investment to strengthen vaccination programs.”
to read the full article go to
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/measles/precipice-disaster-measles-may-be-endemic-25-years-if-vaccine-uptake-stays-low-model
“Measles Surge in Southwest Is Now the Largest Single Outbreak Since 2000”
By Teddy Rosenbluth and Apoorva Mandavilli
“The spread of measles in the Southwest now constitutes the largest single outbreak since the United States declared the disease eliminated in 2000, federal scientists told state officials in a meeting on Monday.
The New York Times obtained a recording of the meeting. Until now, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had not publicly described the outbreak in such stark terms.
More measles cases were reported mostly in Orthodox Jewish communities in New York City and New York State in 2019. But health officials regard those as separate outbreaks, because they were fueled by multiple introductions of the virus by international travelers.
C.D.C. officials now view the spread of measles in Texas, Oklahoma and New Mexico as a single outbreak, Dr. Dan Filardo, who leads the agency’s task force for the measles response, told state health officials at the meeting.
“This is the largest outbreak in the U.S. since measles elimination was declared in 2000,” he said. The agency was sending seven additional officials to Texas, epicenter of the escalating crisis, he added.”
to read the full article go to
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/22/health/measles-southwest-outbreak.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
curated by
Jonathan M. Metsch, Dr.P.H.
https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonathan-metsch-526290199/